Biosecurity
Haumaru Koiora
Why might biosecurity be an important problem?
Pandemics, alongside other biological risks, such as bioterrorism or biological weapons, could threaten humanity with extinction.
As biotechnology continues to progress, it is becoming much easier to manufacture extremely dangerous pathogens. In particular, advances in synthetic biology could produce diseases far deadlier than any which occur naturally. Whether released accidentally or with malicious intent, this could lead to disastrous results.
Because of these risks, many in the effective altruism community see preparing for- and preventing- the next pandemic as one of the world’s most pressing problems. Initial research also suggests that improving biosecurity could be one of the most cost effective ways of doing good, given that it scores highly on the scale, neglectedness, and tractability framework:
Scale
Āwhata
Pandemics are by definition large in scale, threatening millions of lives. Future outbreaks, especially of engineered pandemics, could be even deadlier. There is also the potential for biohazards to pose an existential risk to humanity, with estimates suggesting that there is a > 1 in 10,000 chance of a biological existential catastrophe within the next 100 years.¹
Neglectedness
Mahuetanga
Although billions are spent on preventing pandemics, most existing work is not aimed at reducing the risk of the worst outcomes. Spending is also low in comparison with other significant risks— for example, hundreds of billions per year are spent on climate change. More funding and more people working in this area could make a big difference. ²
Solvability
Whakaotitanga
There are already promising approaches to improving biosecurity. For example, improving the governance of biological research, strengthening international commitments not to develop or deploy biological weapons, and developing new technologies that could be used to quickly test, vaccinate, and treat billions of people in the case of a large-scale, novel outbreak.³
For full references and further information, see 80,000 Hours’ in-depth report on biosecurity
How cost effective is biosecurity?
Initial estimates suggest that work to prevent and prepare for the next pandemic could cost somewhere between $0.13 and $1,600 USD/QALY,⁴ or around $1000 USD per life saved.⁵ By comparison, GiveWell estimates that top global health and development charities can save a life for ~$4,500 USD,⁶ or around $128-$158 USD/DALY.
While highly speculative, these figures suggest that mitigating biorisk could be anywhere from 0.08 to 1,215 times as cost effective as funding GiveWell’s top charities.
Want to get into a career in biosecurity?
Book a free one-on-one call with our team. We can help you formulate a plan, find resources appropriate to your career stage and level of expertise, and put you in touch with mentors.
Donate to highly effective biosecurity work
-
![EA Funds Longterm Future Fund]()
A managed philanthropic fund that makes grants to projects safeguarding the longterm future- including those mitigating biorisk.
-
![NTI | bio]()
Helps create a better future by reducing the risks of and preparing for potentially catastrophic natural and engineered pandemics.
-
![Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security]()
Conducts independent research and analysis aimed at preventing and responding to public health crises.
